Bloom

As a result, the real number of seats Republicans will have to pick up to win a majority is at least 43. To win 43 seats, the NRCC would need to put 70 to 80 seats in play. The NRCC have simply not put that many Republicans seats in play and do And if you include Real Clear Politics' forecasts in the mix, the total rises to 108. That's a fairly liberal definition of "in play", but at least it's one with some concrete standard attached. By a slightly more conservative

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/its-like-mathematically-unpossible-for.html

Still, if the data here are any indication, at first blush it would seem that liberal groups and funders are less supportive of moderate Democrats than conservative groups are of moderate Republicans. This also seems puzzling because

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/blue-dogs-lessons-from-gop-moderates.html

Part of it is because the issue isn't actually all that partisan: 8 Republicans voted for cap-and-trade in the House, which is obviously not a lot, but is certainly better than the goose-egg the Democrats got on health care or the stimulus And cap-and-trade, if done the right way -- if permits are sold, rather than given away to the industry -- can produce quite a lot of revenues: $145 billion per year initially, the CBO estimated in 2008, with the number rising much

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/cap-and-trade-is.html

Edmondson and Askins are both moderate-to-conservative Democrats in the mold of Brad Henry; Edmondson was endorsed by the NRA, but also enraged Republicans by refusing to participate in the multi-state suit to challenge federal health

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/oklahoma-primary-preview.html

In sum, although Delahunt of late carried MA-10 with about two-thirds of the vote (when challenged), Republicans have reason to be very bullish about this seat: Delahunt's gone, Obama squeezed by, and Brown crushed Coakley here. The Massachusetts primary is not until Jeff Perry, conservative state rep from a very red area on upper Cape Cod vs. Joe Malone, more moderate Quincy-based former state treasurer. (Two other no-name candidates are also running.) Dem Primary :

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/capturing-cape.html

There are conservative view points that have merit and that should be considered but the current Luntz talking points are not in there with them. I do listen when honest Republicans put forth considered comments and positions.

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/house-majority-tipping-point.html

As an Atlanta resident, there are lots of issues that need to be addressed that have been ignored by the republicans at Atlanta's expense. Roy Barnes tried to address those issues in his first term and had he not lost to the moron we have If you are liberal/progressive in this state, one must support mod. to conservative Dems. Barnes did get into trouble with the teachers in 2002, but he also inflamed the right by getting rid of the confederate flag that was once our

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/georgia-primary-preview.html

Last week I used ratings by Isaac Wood of Sabato's Crystal Ball for an online analysis and follow-up 538 post in which I examined where Republicans need to win regionally to recapture the House. Democrats with a ranking of 128 or lower are, we might say, in the more liberal half of the House Democratic caucus; those 129 or higher are in the more conservative half. That 128 cut point is indicated by the solid red line in each of the two figures. And what do we see?

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/blue-dogs-be-dog-gone-soon.html

The Dems are doing pretty good this legislative session with less than 60 -- and the 60 they had for a short time was just a numerical oddity anyway, since so many of them are conservative, and voted with the party only after .. Right here, you put your finger on the difference between a political calculation and a policy consideration. The Republicans seem to only be capable of making political calculation -- what soundbites and campaign slogans might play well.

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/senate-forecast-718-republican-outlook.html

The diversity of Republican's opinions of social versus fiscal conservatism can possibly be explained by where the Republicans are in the country with the South being more socially conservative and the West being more libertarian etc.

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/republicans-are-conservative-but-are.html